Before the free agent season started, I predicted a bunch of free agents, where they would go, and their salaries.  Let’s see where I stand, I said if I got a 1/3 of the teams right I would be happy.  If I was even close on the contracts, I would be satisfied…let’s see how it went thus far!

First, the Yankees big three: Tex, CC, & AJ.

I got all three right by teams.  My predictions:

Tex: 8/160.  CC: 6/135. AJ: 5/75.  The actual amounts:

Tex: 8/180.  CC: 7/161. AJ: 5/82.5.  I can’t believe how close I was on these!

Francisco Rodriguez: I thought back to the Angels at 4/52.  I was waaaay off.  He went discount to the Mets at 3/37.

Ryan Dempster: I predicted back to the Cubs for 4/52.  Yep…I am a soothsayer, it was 4/52.  Even I can’t help but give myself a pat on the back.

Raul Ibanez: I predicted Cubs for 3/36.  He went to the Phils for 3/30.  Okay, I am not a soothsayer!

Brian Fuentes: Mets at 3/30…actually went to Angels for 2/17.5 with an option.  I don’t feel bad for this considering I was predicting K-Rod to stay in Anaheim.

Rafael Furcal: Dodgers at 5/65.  Actual: Dodgers at 3/30.  I could not predict some of the financial restraints of the team, and I am sure down the road my predictions will be well overpriced.

Casey Blake: DBacks at 2/15.  Actual: Dodgers at 3/17.5.  Not close at all.

Kerry Wood: Cubs at 3/30.  Actual: Indians at 2/20.5 with option.  The contract is what I thought, but I never thought Hendry would let one of his guys go.

Jamie Moyer: Phils at 2/12.  Actual: Phils at 2/13.  One stinking million off, almost hit two exact!

Randy Johnson: Angels at 1/8.  Actual: SF at 1/8!  I did say I thought he was staying in the southwest…I’ll take it!

Jeremy Affeldt: Rox at 3/12.  Actual: SF at 2/8.  They keep doing it to me, so close yet so far.

Nick Punto: Nats at 1/3.5.  Actual: Minnesota at 2/8.5.  I was very surprised by this contract.

Edgar Renteria: Cards at 1/6.5.  Actual: SF at 2/18.5.  How could you predict this craziness?!?

Brad Penny: Toronto at 2/14.  Actual: Boston at 1/5.  Makes sense.

Felipe Lopez: Baltimore at 2/11.  Actual: Arizona at 1/3.5.  Surprised me a bit, but Scott Boras has not done the best with his clients this offseason (except for that Tex guy…he did well).

Juan Rivera: Phils at 1/4.25.  Actual: Anaheim at 3/12.75.  This caught me offguard, as I thought Rivera wanted to leave the Angels.  And yes, I know they are the LAA, but I am sticking to Anaheim, because they are there!  By the way, I predicted the exact yearly salary he received…how tough is that at 4.25 million a year, they must be looking at this blog!

Darren Oliver: Anaheim at 1/1.5.  Actual: Accepted arbitration.  He is going to get more than $2 Million after arbitration, so I will be off on this prediction.

Doug Brocail: Houston at 1/3.75.  Actual: Houston at 1/2.75.  Close!

So I don’t feel too bad.  Right now I am 8/20 with a couple exact predictions on the contracts.  Not feeling too bad…batting .400.  Sign me up Teddy Ballgame!

This is my guesses, I hope I can get 3 out of 10, not to mention come close on the contracts.  I have a listing on my computer of salary amounts for each team so I tried to stay true to what teams have to spend.  Let’s see what we came up with:

       (1)    Mark Teixeira – Yankees.  I believe I am seeing a cycle.  Yankees owner gets upset, Yankees owner spends big money.  I think there will be two huge splashes.  About to see the next; my contract prediction:  8 Years/$160 Million.

(2)    CC Sabathia - Yankees.  Randy Moss said it best:  “Straight cash, homie”.  The Yanks are backing up the semi and I believe it will persuade him.  Here it goes:  6 Years/$135 Million.

(3)    Manny Ramirez – LA Dodgers.  He’s worth more to them than anyone else.  There’s a logjam of OF’s in LA.  Does not matter, he has the upper hand in this card game.  My guess: 3 Years/$80 Million w/$30 Million Fourth Year Option ($7 Million buyout).  Contract guarantees $29 Million a year with the buyout.

(4)    Ben Sheets – Brewers.  After gaining the CC draft picks, they will still need at least one starter.  I think keeping Sheets with Gallardo is still a solid frontline.  He was fairly healthy this year, and what other team knows more as to how to take care of his frailty?  Sheets gets: 4 Years: $62 Million.

(5)    Francisco Rodriguez – Angels.  I believe that even the Mets will finally realize that giving this guy the $15 Million a year contract is not the way to go.  In the end, the Angels are licking their wounds (under my assumptions) and will take K-Rod back.  Still looking good at: 4 years/$52 Million.

(6)    AJ Burnett – Yankees.  Yep.  I’m calling for something insane, and I can only imagine the Yankees pulling this one off.  AJ wants the Yankees to get into this bidding, and I think he will sell his soul as well (Just a joke!).  This will make the rotation: CC/Wang/Burnett/Joba/Hughes.  Scary, and so is this:  5 Years/$75 Million.

(7)    Adam Dunn – Angels.  Here is where I could be going off a cliff.  I am assuming Tex is a Yankee, and thus the Angels have an opening and still have some money.  I’ve heard Dunn to the Royals and Nats, but I don’t see him doing it.  Dunn receives: 5 Years/$80 Million.

(8)    Derek Lowe – Braves.  He seems interested in going back to Boston, but I don’t believe Theo will even slightly overpay for him.  Atlanta has a ton of money to spend and this will be the first of plenty for them to grab.  Atlanta gives: 4 Years/$68 Million.

(9)    Ryan Dempster – Cubs.  Jim Hendry has a blessing/curse about him.  I am sure that Cubs fans appreciate the fact that when he is going after a player, more often than not he’ll get the player.  The problem is sometimes he gives too many years and maybe a little too much money.  Cubs “over length” the deal: 4 years/$52 Million.

(10)Orlando Hudson - Cardinals.  My dilemma in this: Rumor mills state possible Ludwick for Kelly Johnson trades.  Not to mention the 100,000 possibilities of other teams opening middle infield spots.  Either way, this is the easiest destination to see if everyone stays the course.  He won’t come cheap, but he won’t be that crazy bad:  3 years/$36 Million.

(11) Bobby Abreu – Braves.  Jeff Francouer is going to probably end up in Kansas City (the “I love OBP” group) to play RF.  Abreu could solidify the middle of the lineup.  Only issue I have with this is Chipper and Kotchman can both bat lefty.  Fair contract:  3 years/$48 Million.

(12) Raul Ibanez – Cubs.  Personally, I think this would be a poor choice.  The defense is already suspect in the OF (See LF).  Hendry has had his sights on Ibanez for a few years now.  If they get him, they need to expand payroll beyond the normal limits.  He won’t be as highly regarded as an Abreu, but still won’t be hurting in the pocket book: 3 years/$36 Million.

(13) Mike Mussina – Retired.  Everything in the media that I have read says that the Moose is done.  If he does come back, though, he will be a Yankee.  And they will be sick.

(14) Brian Fuentes – Mets.  Call this the consolation prize.  Now the Mets can have two LH Closers on the roster.  He’ll be getting somewhere in this range: 3 years/$30 Million.

(15) Pat Burrell – Blue Jays.  Nothing that I have read says this is even a thought in JP’s mind.  This is Carl’s thoughts as to how Burrell is best used.  They have an opening at DH and let’s face it: Burrell is a DH.  If Vernon Wells and Alexis Rios turn it up this next year, this will be a sick team.  His bank account goes up: 4 Years/$65 Million.

(16) Rafael Furcal – Dodgers.  Hu is the replacement, so Furcal is the necessity.  Can’t get better than the best available:  5 Years/$65 Million.

(17) Milton Bradley – Rays.  It does not look promising for Cliff Floyd, and one can only hope he can get back out there.  He would be a fantastic addition to the Series Runner-Ups.  As long as he can stay on the field (or better, the DH slot in the lineup), he will be an OPS machine.  Bradley gathers:  2 Years/$20 Million.

(18) Jason Giambi – A’s.  They just added his strength coach to their staff.  Giambi is probably coming back to the A’s.  He had a rough time leaving them in the first place.  Coming home equals: 2 Years/$17 Million.

(19) Casey Blake – D’Backs.  This is a huge “Out There” prediction from me.  How do I come to this?  Earlier this season they spoke of bringing Mark Reynolds to the 2B position.  I believe they will do that this offseason with Hudson leaving.  Blake is the best 3B option in a weak market.  He rings the register: 2 Years/$15 Million.

(20) Orlando Cabrera – Twins.  Do the Twins wish they still had Garza and Bartlett?  I would hope they would…but you can also understand why they pulled the trigger on the trade (Not to mention that Delmon is still young – pun semi-intended).  Twins refill their SS position: 3 Years/$25 Million.

(21) Andy Pettite – Astros.  I suggested this to a Yankee friend, and immediately this was a source of anger.  I believe with Andy looking for a two year deal, he may find one with the ‘Stros.  My guess would be it would have to be something along the lines of the Clemens deal where he stays home on road trips.  I can’t imagine them giving up too much money, though, and if Pettite is not happy with that, he may well retire.  If he plays:  2 Years/$15 Million.

(22) Kerry Wood – Cubs.  He certainly solidifies the backend of the bullpen.  Wood allows Marmol to keep his extremely valuable role of coming in when runners are on.  Is any reliever worth $10 Million a year?  Does that question really matter?  He’s going to get paid: 3 Years/$30 Million.

(23) Mark Grudzielanek – Giants.  I can see them going for him considering they don’t have a lot of help there in the middle infield.  Aurilia may be leaving, and if he does that depletes them that much more.  Grudz works for: 2 Years/$8 Million.

(24) Jamie Moyer – Phillies.  He spoke earlier this year about possibly playing until 50, more years of sub 4.00 ERA and there is no reason to fight him on it.  The Phils will take it: 2 Years: $12 Million.

(25) Randy Johnson – Angels.  The D’Backs have said they don’t have much money aside for Johnson.  Either way, I believe Randy stays in the southwest near his home.  I think Randy gets: 1 Year/$8 Million.

(26) Oliver Perez – Dodgers.  He has that incredible ability to look like the next Cy Young award winner, only to follow it with an 8 walk performance.  But Scott Boras has his book on Perez, and it will let us all know how he is better than Randy Johnson in his prime.  Who becomes the sucker for Boras’ tactics this time around?  LA donates: 4 Years/$52 Million.

(27) Ray Durham – Indians.  They need middle infield help, and Durham has proved he still has some value at the position.  He may be another candidate for a midseason acquisition by a contender.  We will see, but first he signs: 1 Year/$5.5 Million.

(28) John Smoltz – Braves.  I just don’t have it in me to predict something other than this.  He would not be signed until midseason because of his surgery this past season.  I think 1 Year/$4 Million is fair for a half season of work.

(29) Ivan Rodriguez – Yankees.  I think the Red Sox are going to end up with one of the Rangers surplus at Catcher.  The Yanks, I believe, are going to be more concerned with the bigger names.  Not to mention they do have Posada, and I can’t imagine they are going to give up on it.  1 Year/$5 Million.

(30) Randy Wolf – Dodgers.  I see him going back to the west coast if the Astros end up with Pettite.  If Pettite retires, than I believe Wolf will definitely be back with Houston.  LA is his consolation prize.  Wolf pitched well this year, he ought to receive a 2 Year/$15 Million.

(31) Kenshin Kawakami – Red Sox.  The Red Sox have done a great job of bringing up young players who are able to contribute.  Now they have a surplus in the bank account and can gather guys to help them stock up their staff.  I believe that they will do that with Kawakami, he is the most major league-ready talent coming from Japan this year.  I think he’ll grab: 3 Years/$40 Million.

(32) Jeremy Affeldt – Rockies.  I think he comes back considering that Fuentes will be leaving for more money this offseason.  They need a LH Reliever, and, well, Affeldt is a left handed relief pitcher!  He ought to command: 3 Years/$12 Million.

(33) Juan Cruz – Indians.  He is an under the radar candidate to take over a closer role.  Cleveland is talking about getting someone to do that (even though Lewis was not terrible).  Cruz would be a more affordable person to do that, not to mention they could use him as a set up man too.  The very lean pitcher gets: 3 Years/$13 Million.

(34) Mark Kotsay – Rockies.  I think he makes sense for them if they trade Holliday this offseason.  The further they go into this offseason the more likely it seems that Holliday is gone.  Kotsay could set himself up very good for a big contract with a big year in Coors.  Kotsay is looking at: 1 Year/$6 Million.

(35) Trevor Hoffman – Padres.  Duh.  1 Year/$8 Million.

(36) Joe Crede – Dodgers.  Crede prays he can stay healthy for a year because it would undoubtedly create a nice contract: 1 Year/$5 Million.

(37) Nick Punto – Nationals.  He can get a starting gig there.  If he’s willing to be a utility man, this could open him up to a lot of contenders.  If the Nats get him, it is for: 1 Year/$3.5 Million.

(38) Damaso Marte – Cardinals.  The Yanks for some obscene reason are declining the option.  The Cards want a lefty reliever, and Marte can certainly fit the bill.  Around: 3 Years/$15 Million.

(39) Edgar Renteria – Cardinals.  Does this not seem like the perfect fit?  A second go round, the Cards need MI help, Renteria was fantastic there the first time.  We’ll see: 1 year/$6.5 Million.

(40) Jason Varitek – Red Sox.  Tek is a mystery because of Boras.  Is he really going to get him a lot of money?  No way, and he comes back to Boston because of the comfort level: 2 Years/$12 Million.

(41) Brad Penny – Blue Jays.  They need someone to replace AJ Burnett.  They have tried to get him before, but does he not sound like a lower level Burnett (good pitcher/injury prone)?  Even so, Penny seems like a fit there to go in behind Halladay and the gang.  Penny adds a lot of change: 2 Years/$14 Million.

(42) Freddy Garcia – Pirates.  He is going to want a guaranteed starting gig, and the only teams I can see doing it would be in the Cle/Pitt/KC/Wash mold.  Basically, in this case Pittsburgh would be the testing ground for the Yanks/Bos/Chicagos of the world to see if he works out (which they would then trade for him) or he would falter and the Pirates can dump him for cheap.  Garcia revives at: 1 Year/$5.5 Million.

(43) Paul Byrd – Orioles.  Byrd is the type of veteran innings eater that every young rebuilding team can find valuable.  He is a stabilizer.  He earns every bit of: 2 Years/$12 Million.

(44) Jon Garland – Braves.  Another innings eater, but I personally see him as overvalued in that role.  The Braves need more pitching and because of that, he gets: 3 Years/32 Million.

(45) Braden Looper – Brewers.  He’ll be better to grab innings (and a little more reliable for that role than Sheets) and he can still get it done.  He stays in the NL Central for: 3 Years/$27 Million.

(46) Garret Anderson – Angels.  He may last as one of the few remaining one-team players (along with Kerry Wood/John Smoltz/Derek Jeter/etc).  This contract may be that deciding factor.  If a team like Tampa wants him and is willing to guarantee years, he might just leave.  He gets: 1 Year/$7.5 Million.

(47) Felipe Lopez – Orioles.  He is familiar with the area (former National), and the Orioles still have a gaping hole at SS.  I think they give in a little bit to Boras, something like: 2 Years/$11 Million.

(48) Rocco Baldelli – Red Sox.  I think he makes a lot of sense for Boston.  JD Drew is bound to say hello to the DL at some point, and Baldelli certainly should not be an everyday player with his condition.  But like Drew, when Baldelli plays he does well.  He receives: 1 Year/$3.5 Million.

(49) Jerry Hairston Jr. – White Sox.  He can add some speed to the deprived lineup.  As long as he stays healthy, he’ll be a valuable addition to this team: 1 Year/$4.5 Million.

(50) Juan Rivera – Phillies.  He comes to be friendly with Geoff Jenkins in a platoon.  Somewhere in the: 1 Year/$4.25 Million.

Honorable Mention:

Eric Hinske – Rangers. 1 Year/$3.25 Million.

Greg Maddux – Retired.

Doug Brocail – Astros. 1 Year/$3.75 Million.

Jason Isringhausen – Marlins. 1 Year/$1.5 Million plus incentives.

Darren Oliver – Angels. 1 Year/$1.75 Million.

 

Do you agree?  Are you mad your team did not get more free agents?  Give me a shout!